Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Special Economic Zone Act 2012 – Aiming for long term FDI



                                                                   Majyd Aziz


“A Special Economic Zone (SEZ) is a geographical region that has economic and other laws that are more free-market-oriented than a country's typical or national laws."Nationwide" laws may be suspended inside a special economic zone. The category SEZ covers, including free trade zones (FTZ), export processing Zones (EPZ), free Zones (FZ), industrial parks or industrial estates (IE), free ports, free economic zones, urban enterprise zones and others. Usually the goal is to increase foreign direct investment, development of infrastructure and to increase employment.” – Wikipedia

On September 10, 2012, at an impressive ceremony at the Presidency, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari gave his consent to the Special Economic Zone Bill 2012. The journey from conception to signing took four long years but it was worth the wait. It all began when Pakistan Japan Business Forum, a bilateral Forum that I helped establish, floated the idea of a dedicated SEZ for the Japanese investors. The ball got rolling when Salim Mandviwalla, the energetic Chairman of Board of Investment embraced this idea and motivated his team to prepare an attractive SEZ package.


It was approved in 2008 by the Economic Coordination Committee of the Cabinet while the Federal Cabinet accorded approval in principle for initiation of legislation in 2010. The Council of Common Interests also discussed this bill due to introduction of 18th Amendment. CCI approved the bill in August 2011. The Senate accorded approval in January 2012 and National Assembly on July 13, 2012.


The Act would allow Developers and Zone Enterprises to plan and operate in an enabling environment that would include security, safety, availability of physical and social infrastructure, and access to all incentives, facilities, and rules of business. The central aspect of the Act is the formation of a high-powered Board of Approval with the Prime Minister as the Chairman. This, in itself, manifests total commitment towards development and success of SEZs.


The salient features of the Act include the approval of Zones not less than fifty acres. Upto 30% of the Zone could be used for social infrastructure. This would be attractive for those investing and working in any particular Zone. The government would ensure the provision of public utilities and transportation links upto the zero point of the Zone.


Furthermore, the government would promote the adoption of simplified administrative procedures for SEZs with relevant Federal and Provincial authorities and agencies. Such facilitative procedures include issuance of licenses, permits and approvals, satisfactory customs and other documentary requirements, easy fulfillment of tax or duties obligations, and support and authorization of modern means of communication and e-governance.


The country’s labor laws would be equally applicable to the Zone Enterprises too. Moreover, the Board of Approval may, after consultations with concerned Ministries and governmental agencies, issue special rules for employment of non-Pakistanis in key managerial and technical positions. These relate to issuance of visas, temporary residence permits, as well as temporary work permits. Their dependents would be facilitated though these special rules.


Each Zone shall be designated either as a Free Trade Zone, Export Processing Zone, Multilateral Economic Zone, Regional Development Zone, Reconstruction Opportunity Zone, Hybrid Export Processing Zone, Sector Development Zone, or Extra-Territorial Zone depending on specified characteristics. An ETZ would be out of the ambit of the customs territory of Pakistan so that transportation of goods and provision of services from and to these areas and to and from the customs territory of Pakistan shall be considered as export and import. They would get the same treatment for rebates and other advantages. All incentives under this Act shall be in addition to all incentives, benefits and protections that may be applicable to Developers and/or Zone Enterprises under generally applicable legislation and international agreements of Pakistan. These benefits shall not be withdrawn prematurely and any changes shall be to the advantage of the Developer or the Zone Enterprise.

Developers shall be entitled to the following benefits:

(a) One time exemption from all customs duties and taxes for all Capital Goods imported into Pakistan for the development, operation and maintenance of a SEZ entity, subject to verification and approval from Board of Investment.

(b) Exemption from all taxes on income accruable in relation to the development and operation of the SEZ for a period of ten years, starting from date of signing of the development agreement.

All Zone Enterprises shall be entitled to the following benefits:

(a) Exemption from custom duties and taxes on imports of capital goods into the SEZ for installation there

(b) Exemption from all taxes on income for a period of ten year starting from the date the Developer certifies that the Zone Enterprise has commenced commercial operations with the relevant SEZ.


A very relevant feature is the alternative dispute resolution clause. It would be advisable to utilize the expertise available at Karachi Center for Dispute Resolution to prepare an effective mechanism for a mediation process so that the investors and developers can utilize their energies towards the success of their endeavors.


Pakistan is strategically well-placed to be the ideal center for setting up industries to cater to the Middle East, Central Asian Republics, and Afghanistan markets. The country also welcomes import-substitution industries. The future benefits of the Act for Zone Enterprises would be immediate savings in taxes, duties, and other front-loading charges, a safe and secure working environment, preferential treatment of products and services (such as Reconstruction Opportunity Zones concept initiated by US Government but remains in limbo till this day), and, more importantly, accessible domestic and global markets.

 
The various bilateral Forums, FPCCI, the Chambers and Associations, as well as Pakistani diplomats based in foreign countries must promote the SEZ Act. The Prime Minister should order the setting up of SEZ Authority and advise the provincial governments to set in motion plans to establish the Provincial SEZ Authority in their respective provinces. Hopefully, Chairman BOI must have set up the relevant infrastructure in the Board so that the foundation for implementation of the Act is firmly established. Pakistan urgently needs foreign direct investment and the Special Economic Zone Act is the Motorway on which FDI will substantially enter this country.

Business leaders have to play on the front foot

                                                                           Majyd Aziz


The near-total collapse of law and order enforcement in Karachi, inspite of the ever-presence of police, paramilitary forces, armed private security guards, salaried neighborhood vigilantes, and even bands of concerned citizens, has shaken its foundation. This has created a panicky situation for the citizens who are justifiably terrified and who fear that the upward trend has made living in Karachi a nightmare.

Recently, in back-to-back meetings, the apex body Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) and Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) held deliberations to evolve a strategy against the worsening and never-ending law and order issue. They announced strikes, albeit on different days. The Sindh Chief Minister tried to convince them to withdraw their calls by giving hollow pledges. The Sindh Governor held a marathon four-hour joint session with the FPCCI and KCCI leadership. Although the first meeting did not produce result, the Governor was able to get them to postpone the strike.

The strike would create headlines, would create some bad blood between businessmen and the political government, and would further create temporary waves but would not solve this menace. The postponement of the strike call reflects the back foot stance that is common when people in the corridors of power prevail upon business leaders.

It is now time for the business leadership to play on the front foot like cricket players in Super Sixes matches. They should adopt a radical strategy to prove their point. This is not the time to do a Misbah-ul-Haq. This is also not the time to play like Shahid Afridi of today. The time has come for batting like Brian Lara. The writing is on the wall. Karachi is becoming a war zone.

So, what should they do? The economy is not encouraging while transferring assets abroad is not the only viable solution. They know that diabolical internal and external forces are making it an insurmountable task for them to bring about sanity in their businesses. Therefore, the following demands and actions be initiated.

• Whenever there is a landlord-tenant dispute, invariably the rent is deposited in the court until the matter is decided. Similarly, the leadership should announce that the businessmen would deposit their taxes with Supreme Court requesting it to decide on release of the revenue to FBR after ascertaining improvement in law and order.

• Organize a private security force of retired commandos to devise and implement a security strategy for trade and industry. Chief of the Army Staff be requested to delegate a serving Major General to assist the security force.

• Advise the Governor to order Inspector General of Police, Director General of Rangers, Home Secretary, and representatives of sensitive organizations to hold a weekly meeting with them on a designated day, time and place and update them with the handling of the law and order situation.

• The promises of arms licenses to businessmen should be translated into practical implementation.

• Political parties must be given a strongly-worded warning that they should help bring peace in the South City instead of playing politics.

• Demand COAS to come heavy against the banned terrorist groups that have found haven in Karachi.

• The business leadership must shed personal conflicts and unite to achieve objectives of peace and security in Karachi.

Karachi is the economic mega city and any criminal event in Karachi is detrimental to prosperity of Pakistan. Taking a lackadaisical attitude towards ushering in peace is against all norms of good governance and reflects submission to terrorists and criminals. The business leadership must act now, by playing on the front foot.

Friday, October 5, 2012

Case For Pakistan-USA Free Trade Agreement

Majyd Aziz

Preamble:
Pakistan and the United States of America are strong trade and investment partners and whatever market access is available to Pakistani exporters is reflective of the importance that USA holds for Pakistani goods, especially textiles. However, for various economic, political, military, and social reasons, there has seldom been a solid support for allowing liberal market access to Pakistan. So much so, the much-touted initiative of Reconstruction Opportunity Zones succumbed to political exigencies as well as two major events in Pakistan. One was the imposition of Emergency by President Pervez Musharraf and the second was the tragic assassination of Benazir Bhutto. These two events paid put to the ROZ initiative.

Over the last many years, officials from both the countries have continued their negotiations for a Bilateral Investment Treaty. BIT was seldom on the radar of Pakistani economic planners until some months ago Chairman Pakistan Board of Investment, Salim Mandviwalla, took the process forward in one of his official trips to Washington and the ball has started rolling again. Notwithstanding the ignorance of, and lack of knowledge of, BIT by many a business leader, the fact remains that a successful negotiation of the Treaty and its immediate implementation by both the countries would pave the way for the negotiations on the Free Trade Agreement.

Rationale:
Pakistan has been rather lethargic in executing successful Free Trade Agreements with her various trading partners and, even then, except for certain items or sectors, Pakistan has not been able to avail and utilize the benefits and advantages of FTA. Pakistan has signed FTAs with Sri Lanka, China, and Malaysia and of course, for whatever is its worth, Pakistan is also a signatory to the South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) as decided by SAARC countries.

The Pakistan-Sri Lanka FTA was signed in June 2005. For the year 2005, Pakistan exports to Sri Lanka were $154 million and imports were $ 59 million. In 2011, exports rose to $350 million while imports remained pretty much stagnant and were only $ 61 million. Although Pakistan’s exports to Sri Lanka (the first country that signed FTA with Pakistan) have seen an exponential growth, the main concern is that Pakistani exporters have not been able to seriously make their mark in Sri Lanka.

The Pakistan-China FTA was inked in July 2007. For the year 2007, Pakistan’s exports were $613 million and imports (official) were $4,164 million while in 2011, exports rose to $1,680 million and imports (official) jumped to $6,500 million. The Pakistan-Malaysia FTA was signed in 2007 too. Pakistan’s exports in 2007 to Malaysia were $81 million and imports were $1,157 million while in 2011, exports went up to $243 million and imports increased to $2,728 million.

At present, the bilateral trade between Pakistan and United States is a matter of great concern. Pakistan’s exports to USA have generally ranged between $3,000 million and $4,300 million annually since 2004 and, in fact, recently there has been a decline in total exports. Imports have been between $1,500 and $1,750 million except for the year 2007 when PIA procurednthe new Boeing planes. While the share of Washington in Pakistan’s total exports was 23% in 2004 and 22% in 2007, it decreased to only 15% in 2011. Pakistan’s share of total US imports is less than 0.20% while the share of textiles is between 3.3% and 3.5% of total US textile exports.

It is, therefore, in the larger interest of the country, a nation that has been in the forefront in the Global War On Terror, a developing country that has spent in excess of $75 billion fighting the war, and a proud nation that has lost nearly 4000 valiant soldiers and nearly 38,000 civilians in fighting terrorists and extremists, that the United States must take the lead and provide Pakistan with a level playing field in market access, in duties and incentives, and in ensuring that equality and non-discriminatory attitude is ensured for Pakistani goods, products, and services.

Products:
Textiles have been the main exports to United States and it maximum concentration has been given to promote this sector. However, no significant increase has been registered in enhancing the figures. This is a matter of deep consternation too and is impacting on expansion in the bilateral trade with USA. Pakistani textile exporters are fighting a long-drawn battle with China, India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka to protect their share, but over the past years these four countries have encroached upon the territory. Each passing year would witness a growing pressure on Pakistan’s textile exports to USA since the African countries, utilizing the AGOA incentives, the South American countries, and even the West Indies nations would increase their market share in America. Therefore, it is incumbent upon Pakistani negotiators to ensure that atleast the niche textile products do qualify and are included in the items allowed under FTA. They are cautioned not to accept or rely upon the list of textile categories that were included under the ROZ initiative.

Therefore, Pakistan must adopt a two-pronged strategy in trade with USA. First, to maintain and gradually increase the share of textiles, and, secondly to concentrate on penetrating the US market with full backing and support for other sectors that are ripe for Pakistani products. It is heartening to note that Pakistani manufacturers of PET Resin have obtained a good share in USA and thus this product must become a component of the items under FTA. Recently, two mega pioneer plants have been set up in Karachi to produce BOPET that would not only save $40 million as import substitution but would also have an export market in excess of $30 million. It is proposed that this pioneer industry should also be included in FTA.

Pakistan is rich in minerals. There is a huge market for Barite, both in ore form and well as powder form, for the oil-drilling industry. Pakistan has never exported this mineral to USA but now some exporters are targeting this sector too. China is a regular exporter of this mineral and Pakistan can make inroads if there is an incentive in the form of zero duties and preferential treatment.

Export of Pakistani mangoes made headlines, but the Non-Tariff Trade Barriers stymied all efforts of the fruit exporters and the government to establish footprints for the fruit in USA. The entry of mangoes in the American market would enable the acceptance of Pakistani fruits in USA, in raw form, in pulp form, and in canned or packaged form. This sector needs the attention of negotiators too.

There are many other miscellaneous items that can be favorably exported to USA such as confectionary, gems and jewelry, leather products, handicrafts, marble items, herbal oils, and many other such items. Already software exports have found a reliable and favorable market in USA but most of the exports are unreported or acknowledged. It is important that TDAP must also set in motion programs to introduce and market new non-traditional items into the USA.

At the same time, FTA would enable Pakistan to import state-of-the-art machinery, energy equipment, medical equipment, oil drilling equipment, raw cotton, and many new innovative products that would be instrumental in improving, production, productivity, and economic savings. Furthermore, the Finance Ministry must also develop an understanding for financing of American products for Pakistan at favorable rates, terms and conditions with US Ex-Im Bank, OPIC, and even directly with major American financial institutions.

Roadblocks:
It must be understood that the signing of FTA between Pakistan and USA may not have a smooth sailing. The three main players in creating complications, hindrances, and anti-FTA hype are certain Members of Congress (who would dig out issues such as Balochistan imbroglio, Shakil Afridi incarceration, harboring a terrorist network, etc), the American labor unions, specifically AFL-CIO, who abhor the concept of FTA, and of course the ever-vigilant Indian Diaspora through its various organizations. Pakistan has suffered from this intensive lobbying in the past and there is more of a negative image of Pakistan nowadays than in the past. The yo-yo relationship between Washington and Islamabad is a testimony to this mindset.

To counter any such moves and to further protect the share of the American market, it is incumbent upon the private sector to manifest a determined role in evolving a workable and effective lobbying strategy. It is proposed that FPCCI or even the Textile Forum must hire the services of well known lobbyists in USA who can advice, guide, and pursue the interests of Pakistani exporters. A Political Action Committee could be set up under which the case for Pakistani exporters could be highlighted at various forums and institutions, especially in developing relationship with members in House of Representatives and in the Senate.

The post-November scenario, after the US Presidential elections may bring about a revisit of the delicate relationship between the two countries. It is crucial that trade and investment must not be held hostage to other sensitive issues that are impacting this relationship.

Future:
The policymakers in both the countries understand the dynamics of this delicate relationship. Pakistan needs to be economically sustainable since most of the policies made by economic managers have not been as effective as envisioned and planned. Both countries have the critical mass to accept the ground realities. Washington must take the essential first steps to initiate a strong economic relationship since only through trade and investment would Pakistan hold the fort and overcome the myriad problems, both homegrown as well as externally influenced, that have affected the lives of 190 million denizens of Pakistan.

Friday, September 28, 2012

From Euphoria to Tragedy

                                                                       Majyd Aziz


The euphoria enveloping the Bohra community during the last week when Syedi Mufaddal Bhaisaheb Saifuddin, the designated successor of the present spiritual leader and Dai, Syedna Burhanuddin, evaporated into gloom and doom when desperados targeted this docile, primarily mercantile, and sensitive religious community through an IED bomb in a busy shopping center frequented by this community in Haidary, Karachi.

At this critical juncture in the history of Karachi, where target killings, extortion racket, high incidence of street crime and burglaries, kidnappings, strikes and rallies are vitiating the peace and security of this metropolitan city, the attack on a peaceful community by dastardly perpetrators of terrorism reflects the total shredding of the moral fiber of this country. The harrowing thought occurring in the minds of the other accommodating, amenable and business-oriented ethnic communities who have mega stakes in Karachi is whether the attack on Bohra community was an isolated incident or whether this was an harbinger of worse attacks on them in the future. The Memon, Ismaili, and Parsi communities are definitely scared and this calamity has further fortified their sense of insecurity that they have been feeling since the last few years. This episode, alongwith some high profile kidnappings and extortion threats, have compelled them to indulge in community-based strategic rethinking about living in Karachi or planning future investments. The much-talked about exodus of over 175 Memon families, primarily women and children, to UAE and Malaysia does not bode well for the nation's image and economy. Even the Chinioti community has openly voiced their concerns and is contemplating another substantial migration to Punjab from Karachi.

What is the solution to this mayhem and near anarchy in Karachi? How long would be the citizens, and more so the business community, continue to listen to hollow promises and assurances of people in the corridors of power? When people with wherewithal come to a point when they are ready to leave everything and move out of the country for a safe future for their children and their business, then that must be considered as the last straw. The deployment of the present lot of law enforcers has not given any tangible results. Now, no more spin doctoring, no more empty promises, and no more e.Coli would bring relief to the mercantile communities, especially those communities that are known for their passivity and adherence to the laws of the country.

Maybe the time has come when again the strict control and maintenance of law and order in the South City must be handed over to the Pakistan Army. Isn’t it the opportune time to place a total ban on strikes, rallies, and processions until situation improves? Even the political parties must refrain from their petty politics as this attitude of theirs has manifested into making Karachi a volatile volcano. The politicians, it seems, are shying away from addressing the real issues affecting the nation. They have relegated the economic and social issues as a low priority and are concentrating more on diverting the attention of the populace by cashing in on other matters that enable them to be in the public eye. Pakistan is not getting better. Tragedy has become the daily sustenance, tragically.

Friday, September 21, 2012

Kohinoor of the Dada family

Majyd Aziz

The Dada family has been rightly named as the Wal-Marts of Pakistan by Prof Iqbal Ismail in his book Footprints in the Sand. This Memon family was admired as royalty in Bantva and the paterfamilias of the clan, Hussain Kassam Dada, was the largest commodities trader in pre-partition India. After migrating to Karachi in 1947, he oversaw his huge business with the help of his sons. In fact, most of the multinationals that came to invest in Pakistan usually had one or two of the family as sponsoring Directors.

Aisha was Hussain’s first grandchild, eldest daughter of Haji Adam, and my paternal grandmother. I am the eldest of the fifth generation of the Dada family (I am 62, and on the Dada family tree, my “generation” still has many more years to complete). This lady was a very simple, pious, thrifty person. There was never a hint of arrogance or braggadocio, attributes that Dada progeny were perceived and even felt by those who came into contact with them. She was destined to be a devoted wife, a possessive mother, a loving mother-in-law, and a doting grandmother. The elders got her wedded to Omer Haji Muhammad, a scion of the Balagamwala family and someone who had an aristocratic lifestyle, who was erudite, and whose heart would melt behind a façade of strong temperament.

Aisha had given birth to three boys but destiny placed her in a position where she lost her eldest and youngest children, when they were very young, and then spent her whole life being the Guardian Angel to her surviving son, Abdul Aziz Haji Omer.

She saw her eight grandchildren grow and ensured that they were under her watchful eyes. She was our nanny, religious teacher, and the source of advice. Although uneducated nor an expert in psychology, her boudoir was the place where many relatives, mostly women, came for advise, guidance, monetary assistance, and parental affection. She always provided financial support quietly and those who were beneficiaries of her largesse used to leave her bungalow with no remorse or dejection. She would at times take one of her grand-daughters in the car to a poor relative and would instruct the driver to park the car far away and would walk towards the relative’s house. She did not want to show off that she came in her car to help them and would always sit on the floor with them. At times, she would go in a bus, just to demonstrate that she was an ordinary person, and not the wife and daughter of rich tycoons. Till her last days, she never missed Tahajud prayers and even had this habit of picking up her plate after eating and washing it herself.

Aisha performed Haj three times. In 1949, in 1953, and her last Haj was in 1965 with me and my mother. It was really a miracle for us to get the P-Form approved by State Bank of Pakistan on the morning of the last Haj flight and before the afternoon was over, we were on our way to Jeddah. On 7 Muharram, I was in my first floor hotel room in Makkah with my mother when I heard her shouting from the road, “Majyd, Ka’abo khuli vio aai, jaldi Haram Sharif bhug.” (Majyd, the Ka’aba is open, run fast to the Haram Sharif). I only 15 years old ran and managed to get inside the Holy edifice. On Ashur’a day, three days later, there was an action replay. Again she came running, yelled, and again I ran and again managed to get into the Holy Ka’aba. More importantly, I was also one of the lucky ones to get on the roof of the Holy Ka’aba and I waved to her when I saw her in the Mata’af. I would have never got this unique honor of being in the Holy Ka’aba had it not been for her who obviously ran from the Haram Sharif to convey the news twice.

She would also hold her great-grandchildren in her lap while their hairs were cut for the first time during their Aqiqa. She was always given this honor and there would be a twinkle in her marble-blue eyes whenever she held her great-grandchildren. She never discriminated against any one of them nor would she scold them. For her, they were the source of strength in her last decade. She was fortunate to see and hold twenty of her twenty-two great-grandchildren. She was very much in love with my youngest sister Hafsa and would even make it a point to drop her off to school.

Aisha lived for others. Even if her siblings (all strong-headed) were at times at loggerheads with one another, she would never take sides but always tried to conciliate and even make sure that she would be punctual at family functions. The only time she felt resentment was when her brother, Siddiq Dada, married an Englishwoman. She never accepted her new sister-in-law and till the end she was solidly behind her Bhabi Zubaida.

Aisha was taken sick in November 1988, and rushed to Aga Khan Hospital. As fate would have it, this prestigious hospital did not have a spare ventilator. I remember running from hospital to hospital and finally was able to get her into OMI Hospital thanks to then Sindh Governor. The next day, she left for her Heavenly Abode. Sadly, nine years later, on Eid ul Azha, this scenario was repeated and my father also died in exactly the same manner. Aisha was nearly eighty when she died. She was never called Dadi but Hajiani Ma (I used to call her by this title when I was just few years old). This formidable devotee of Ghaus al Azam, this very religious woman, this downright honest and sincere lady, was truly the Kohinoor of the Dada Family.

SITE Inferno

Majyd Aziz

The Pakistani industrialists, mostly in small and medium sector, usually do not give intense consideration to issues of Occupational Safety of workers as well as the working place. This reflects a myopic approach that substantially puts the working environment in a damaging position. Moreover, the lack of proper layout of machinery, work stations, and movement logistics has generally created a difficult situation in the operations of an industrial unit. The SITE Inferno is a disturbing manifestation of what has been stated above.

Although the responsibility lies with the management, it is pertinent to mention that this particular unit was victim of goods pilferage by workers, of threats by extortionists, and the reliance on overtime due to time constraints (primarily due to power and gas shortages and off-days).

However, this does not absolve the management from the tragedy. A professional security expert would have planned a workable security system that would have been exclusive for that unit. Unfortunately, industrialists tend to ignore such investments and also tend to cut corners in achieving their production targets.

Karachi has seven industrial estates where about 10,000 industries are based. Moreover there are atleast 50,000 cottage and small industries in the informal sector that are based in residential areas too. Many factories are like a cauldron waiting for its contents to overflow.

It is also important to state that corruption, lax conformation of safety rules and regulations, ill-planning of units, usage of shoddy material such as electric wires, switches, gas cylinders etc are prime as well as disturbing reasons for such incidents.

The various government agencies whose role is to inspect the units, advise on the conditionalities of the rules, regulations, and statutory laws, and ensure strict compliance have used these to browbeat and pressurize the industrialists. The Civil Defence officials were least concerned with the fire safety measures and equipment installed in the industries and, instead, more keen to promote the sales of such equipment peddled by their own companies or supplied by companies that offer commissions to these officers. The labor inspectors would usually sit in the Director's room, insert casual "warnings" over innocuous violations, have tea and biscuits, collect their pound of flesh and vanish to prey on the next victim. In SITE, the name of the game is money. For the officials of SITE Ltd, a quasi-governmental organization, it’s the "money makes the world go round" syndrome. In SITE Ltd, every task has a prescribed "price". One has to pay for every legal, illegal, and not-so-legal activity.

The calamity may impact negatively on Pakistan's image in the global export market. There would be clarion calls from Western buyers for an immediate revisit of safety systems in units that supply goods to them. A lot of damage control would be required immediately by TDAP, FPCCI, and more importantly from Prime Minister so that one incident does not block the existing exports.

Meantime, business associations as well as community based organizations must create a fund and a plan to address the present and future requirements of the families of the over 300 victims. Overall, citizens and workers have to play a decisive role in ensuring that sanity prevails in work places. Everyone is equally responsible.

Monday, July 2, 2012

Pakistan and Iran: Neighbors Forever

                Majyd Aziz
(Former President Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry)

Presentation at the Panel Discussion on “Pakistan’s Relations with Regional Countries (Afghanistan, Iran, and CARs)” At National Institute of Management, Karachi, July 02-2012

Preamble:

PAKISTAN’S policymakers, economists, politicians, and even the business community, when talking or explaining the nation’s relations with other countries, especially China and Islamic countries, usually begin by highlighting the rich history of religious or strong friendly bilateral ties since the creation of Pakistan. With China, the relationship is deeper than the ocean and higher than the mountain. With Islamic countries, Pakistan shares a common religion and the relationship is fraternal and brotherly. This is the diplomatic way of saying that we pray together, we assist one another, we meet often, and so we must do a lot for each other.

PAKISTAN’S diplomatic speak is well taken and acknowledged but the litmus test is the status of trade and investment that counts in today’s global environment. The name of the game is money, translated into investment, imports and exports, trade incentives, trade and investment treatment, and cooperation through trading blocs or regional blocs. However, the economic side is not the only criteria in favorable bilateral relations. Being a neighbor, or adhering to the same religion, or being a member of the same bloc are also taken into consideration when defining the contours of a bilateral relationship. The political implications are paramount too, especially when there are issues that emerge either at a global level or those that are primarily two-sided controversial. More often than not, the political, security and diplomatic ramifications weigh heavily on the relationship and thus impact negatively by making trade and investment hostage to these factors.

PAKISTAN’S neighbors have all experienced, accepted, and are frequently evolving their bilateral relations with Pakistan. China, India, Iran, Afghanistan have in recent years, due to their own national interests, exigencies, or the changing world environment, are focusing their attention on Pakistan and, in the process, have gradually brought economic issues into the forefront. Although this revisit may not immediately bring about the transformation from a sensitive or aggressive posture to peace and economic prosperity for Pakistan, the projections and outlook point towards a positive development in Pakistan’s relations with neighbors.

Pakistan-Iran: The Trade Scenario:

PAKISTAN’S bilateral trade with Iran is, to say the least, dismal. The two nations, with a 900 km common border, with population of 190 and 75 million, with full membership in Economic Cooperation Organization, had a bilateral trade of only $ 357 million in 2011. Pakistan exports were $ 153 million while imports were $ 304 million. Of course, the informal or undocumented trade is flourishing despite avowed statements by officials of both countries to control smuggling. Trade through Dubai is also not taken into account in the official figures. Notwithstanding these, the fact remains that Iran’s total exports in 2011 were $ 102 billion and imports were $ 54 billion while Pakistan-Iran bilateral trade is less than 0.7%.

The depressing fact is that Pakistan’s exports to Iran in 2008 were $426 million, in 2009 were $252 million, and in 2010 were $ 182 million. On the other hand, Pakistan’s imports from Iran also witnessed a decline. In 2008, imports were $738 million, in 2009 were $956 million, and in 2010 imports fell further to $ 883 million. Within one year, there has been a deep dive by over $ 580 million.

It is a fact that over 80% of Iran’s exports are petroleum and petroleum products while fruits, nuts, and carpets make up most of the other exports. It is also a fact that Iran’s major oil customers are China, Japan, India, Turkey and Korea. Inspite of economic sanctions, Iran managed to increase exports by 21% in 2011 on a year-to-year basis, i.e., from $ 84 billion to $ 102 billion. Of course, Iran’s main exports are petroleum and petroleum products.

Pakistan’s major exports to Iran consist of cereals and make up nearly 50% of total exports. Meat, edible meat offal, edible fruit, nuts, citrus fruits, melons and mangoes have a share of 20% of total exports. Pakistan exports less than $ 2 million worth of textiles to her neighbor.

The top state hierarchies of both the countries routinely come up with grandiose statements urging an increase in bilateral trade. However, the main focus of talks between the two nations revolves around the energy sector while emphasis is seldom given to other sectors that could enhance bilateral trade. The United Nations trade embargo on Iran has further put pressure on Pakistan to conduct a more meaningful trade relationship with Iran.

The Positive Results:

Pakistan is facing a severe energy crisis. Loadshedding has played havoc with the lives of the citizens and massive riots against loadshedding have become a daily feature. In some cities and towns, power is off for most of the day. Trade and industry is suffering this menace too. All government efforts to ensure regular supply of power have come to naught. At the same time, the circular debt scenario has further exacerbated the crisis. Moreover, Pakistan is running out of natural gas. The impact on industries, especially in Punjab, has been atrocious. Last year, industries were without gas for about 180 days. The ensuing result has been reflected in the decline in textile exports as compared to last year. The crisis has been further aggravated by the unbridled issuance of licenses for CNG stations and the lack of discipline in this sector. Officially, these stations consume nearly 9% of the total gas supply while it is alleged that about 3% further supply is made to unscrupulous station owners through an undocumented process by corrupt officials in SNGPL and SSGC. Whatever may be the case, the indiscriminate utilization of natural gas through CNG stations also reflects the distorted priorities of the policymakers in government.

Thus, the news about the agreement to build the Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline was widely acclaimed. The project would supply 750 mcft daily through its 1700 km length. It is estimated that atleast 4000 mw of electricity could be generated through the use of Iranian gas. Iran has nearly completed the 900 km pipeline upto the border while Pakistan, as always, is still trying to find someone to lay the pipeline. The estimated cost of the project on the Pakistani side is estimated at $1.2 billion. It is possible that a Chinese company may commence work on the pipeline unless external pressures put a damper on the project. The venture is a tall order but a doable alternate source of supply of gas. The dice is, however, loaded against Pakistan, primarily the United Nations trade embargo as well as the strong opposition from Washington. Inspite of the signing of the TAPI agreement that would be another alternate source of gas supply and inspite of covert disapproval even from Saudi Arabia, various daring statements emanating out of Islamabad reflect the government’s determination to go ahead with the project. It is to be seen how much support Pakistan receives from China in this project. Notwithstanding the Tehran offer to finance upto $500 million of the construction of the pipeline in Pakistan, the threat of economic sanctions looms heavily over the project.

Pakistan has inked an agreement with Iran for importing 1000 mw electricity at 10 cents per unit. This project would be commissioned in about four years. Iran is willing to export more than 5000 mw to Pakistan and has indicated that a new power plant can be set up exclusively for Pakistan. Iran is also willing to provide financing with $800 to $900 million for constructing the infrastructure.

The solution for the perennial energy shortages, although should be addressed internally, the fact of the matter is that Pakistan’s policymakers have let things go out of hand. Construction of dams has been sacrificed due to political or provincial constraints. Hard-nosed efforts have never been made in renewable alternate energy. Corruption, theft, obsolence, and mismanagement in utilities-providers are endemic. Thus, the thinking is to rely on external sources of supply to maintain the nation’s economic progress. With this in view, the offer of supplies of gas and power by Iran seems a realistic alternative.

The Roadblocks:

The United States and Israel have launched a campaign to deter Iran from going nuclear while Iran is determined to achieve nuclear technology capability. United Nations has placed a trade embargo asking members not to deal with Iran. Pakistan is between the devil and the deep blue sea in trying to strike a balance between observance of the global decision and in maintaining relations with the Western neighbor. On the one hand, Pakistan is strongly committed to fulfilling its obligations regarding the Iran Pakistan Gas Pipeline and the expected supply of electricity, while on the other hand, there have been restrictions imposed by State Bank of Pakistan. Although the UN sanctions do not apply to foodstuffs, cereal, and packaging material for packing of food, the Pakistani banks are not prepared to issue e-forms or open Letter of Credit for deals made with Iran. The SBP has decreed cessation of trade with Iran also. Thus, there is a need to utilize alternate banking channels to circumvent the SBP directives. One deterrent is that there are no branches of banks in respective countries. This has led to a reliance on informal channels, such as transit trade through Dubai, resulting in adding cost to the consignments.

A recent casualty of the trade embargo has been the mango export to Iran. Pakistan generally exported more than 30,000 tonnes of mangoes worth over $10 million and now this market has been lost. At the same time, Kinnow exports that were in excess of 60,000 tonnes per year have dwindled to less than 6,000 tonnes. Rice exports have been impacted negatively too. Pakistan used to export upto $230 million worth of rice to Iran but in the current year the rice exports have been less than $75 million. Due to the banking restrictions, smuggling, and under-invoicing, official exports have considerably reduced and now rice is mostly sent via Dubai. Recently, an agreement was signed under which Pakistan plans to export one million tons of wheat and 0.2 million tons of rice to Iran in lieu of oil and other goods under barter trade arrangements. However, the plan has not yet been finalized.

The Future:

Pakistan and Iran have to sincerely look towards the future. Iran, while facing sanctions, has to rely on neighbors to maintain economic sanity. Pakistan offers the ideal set up for Iranians in many aspects. Iran’s foreign exchange reserves are estimated to be in excess of $100 billion and inspite of the economic embargo, Iran has been able to export oil to China, India, Japan, Korea and Turkey. It is proposed that Pakistan and Iran should rely on payment of goods in each other’s currency as India is doing with Iran for oil.

Iran can participate in setting up an Iran-specific Special Economic Zone in Pakistan that would primarily cater to the Iranian market. Rice and fruit processing plants can be easily set up in the SEZ. Iran, taking advantage of border with Balochistan, is rightly placed to invest in mineral exploration as well as oil exploration. This would provide an edge as well as protect Iranian interests in the region. Iran can also focus on Barite mining that is essential for drilling oil.

It is time Iran revisited her trade policy with Pakistan. It is to Iran’s advantage that preferential treatment be given to Pakistanis products and services. Apart from rice, wheat, fruits, etc, Iran can procure textiles, leather, and other commodities from Pakistan. Moreover, Iran can invest in agriculture and livestock that would cater to the Iranian consumers’ needs.

Pakistan is facing a severe financial crisis. The foreign exchange reserves are gradually depleting. SBP Governor Yasin Anwar, in an interview with Wall Street Journal, warned that the foreign exchange reserves are under pressure. Moreover, due to the economic downturn, the Treasury would not be able to meet the targeted revenue. Pakistan is still waiting for reimbursement of the Coalition Support Fund. Etisalat is still not coughing up the $800 million that is due for PTCL. Even IMF has closed its portals for the Pakistani Finance Minister. China recently has parked a substantial amount of resources to boost up the Forex reserves. Iran can also be approached to support the eastern neighbor with financial resources to strengthen Pakistan’s monetary position in the short term.

Role of Business Community:

The onus lies on the business community of both Iran and Pakistan to initiate a Track II approach to bring change in the trade and investment environment. Pakistani and Iranian businessmen are also vigorously trying to persuade respective governments to make the Joint Ministerial Commission pro-active by holding frequent consultative meetings. The Pakistan Iran Joint Business Council, a business initiative, is at present dormant due to Iranian lack of interest.

There has been lot of talk about single country exhibitions in each other’s territory. Progress was made to hold one exhibition in Iran. The Pakistani side desired it to be held in Mashad while the Iranians were keen on Zahidan. The decision is awaited. There is also discussion about setting up a Business Forum of shipping companies of both countries.

Pakistani exporters have also lobbied to reduce the import duties on textiles. So far, there is no headway in this matter. Since there are no bank branches, this is also affecting smooth official trade as well as channelizing trade in an official mode.

Pakistani Chambers and Associations should also extensively lobby with United Nations to exempt Pakistan from conditionalities of the trade embargo and treat Pakistan as a nation that needs Iranian gas and electricity. Pakistani businessmen should also lobby through Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) as well as Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) so that mutually beneficial regional cooperation is ensured.

There is an imperative need to increase the number of trade delegations since direct contacts can create new business opportunities and also enhance the bilateral trade figures. Although trade delegations routinely visit each other’s country and there is plenty of interaction at various forums, the trade and investment figures are negating all such initiatives. It is also essential that undocumented trade be discouraged and opposed. This must be the priority of FPCCI in motivating businessmen who trade with Iran. Moreover, it is also important that financing of the gas pipeline is envisaged through private sector participation and involvement.


Conclusion:

Pakistan and Iran have to be economically and politically bonded since both desire more regional trade and investment, especially under the banner of ECO of which both are leading members. Pakistan should also endeavor to commence work on the Iran Pakistan Gas Pipeline on a fast track basis. In future, a direct oil pipeline should also be planned so that Pakistan is assured of its petroleum needs. Pakistan and Iran have no choice but to be neighbors in the real sense.

Pakistan and Afghanistan: Neighbors in War and Peace

Majyd Aziz
(Former President Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry)

Presentation at the Panel Discussion on “Pakistan’s Relations with Regional Countries (Afghanistan, Iran, and CARs)” At National Institute of Management, Karachi, July 02-2012

Preamble:

PAKISTAN and Afghanistan are two neighbors that have a lot in common. Although a 2600 km border separates the two nations, they have common cultural values, traditions, religion, and even civilization. Notwithstanding a blow hot, blow cold bilateral relationship, the mutual ties have a distinct flavor blossoming with history, language and ethnicity.

PAKISTAN, inspite of its own economic difficulties, provided shelter to millions of Afghans and the Pakistani people welcomed them with warm hearts into their towns and villages.

Islamabad opened up its Treasury to the tune of over $400 million per year to sustain, feed, and maintain the refugees who migrated from their ancestral homes. Pakistan allowed them to work, to conduct business, and to study enabling them to contribute to their welfare through hard work and business acumen. Many prosperous Afghan businessmen of today belong to the families of the refugees, a fact accepted by most of the Afghanis.

PAKISTAN has witnessed and also felt the tremors of the turmoil that Afghanistan is facing for more than three decades and even though there are indications from Washington that over 130,000 NATO troops would withdraw in 2013, the prognosis for peace is bleak. The withdrawal of foreign troops may provide impetus to the Taliban to fight for supremacy and that may ignite the fires of civil war enveloping Pakistan again in its flames.

PAKISTAN also facilitates the landlocked neighbor through the Afghanistan Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement. Two landmark agreements, signed in 1965 and 2010, enabled both countries to channelize trade in a systematic mode and thus ensuring uninterrupted transit of goods even when political manifestations or national security dynamics overwhelmed the bilateral relations. Afghanistan has access to three overland routes to facilitate foreign trade, through Pakistan, Iran and Central Asian Republics, but the economics work out favorably through the Pakistani route. Right now, the United Nations trade embargo on Iran precludes using the Chabahar Port in Iran which is 1700 km from Herat. The Northern route is expensive as NATO/ISAF forces have experienced after the suspension of the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC) by Pakistan. The US Secretary of Defense recently disclosed that it is costing the coalition forces over $100 million per month due to this decision.

The Trade Scenario:

The extent of trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan largely depends on the nature of diplomatic or militaristic situation at a given time. Over the past decades, official trade was not much in value as Pakistani goods did not have a large market in Afghanistan while Iranian goods were more available and were more in demand. However momentum picked up from the year 2000 and bilateral trade went up from $170 million in 2000-01 to $2,860 million in 2011 with Pakistan exporting $2,660 million and importing $200 million.

The trade figures do not reflect the actual volume of trade taking place between the two nations. There is rampant smuggling, there is the concentrated undocumented trade, and there is the perennial misuse of the APTTA. Although a lot of items from Pakistan make their way into the Afghan market, the main emphasis is on mineral fuel, oil, cement, rice, cereals, and vegetables. From Afghanistan, the imports are mostly iron and steel, minerals, and cotton.

The heavy rush of cargo trucks moving containers under APTTA or for NATO/ISAF plus the official exports has enabled massive undocumented trade to take place. Although GLOC is suspended since November 2011 after the Salala incident, the movement of cargo under the other two sectors continues and thrives. The official exports of cement are around $225 million but these figures do not reflect the actual value and tonnage of cement being imported into Afghanistan. It is estimated that cement of the value in excess of $100 million is transported across the border by the truckers who have direct access to distributors or retailers of cement. In this manner, the official channels are circumvented and the Afghan importers are able to obtain cement cheaper.

The porous borders and the contrivance of Customs authorities and law-enforcing agencies have also facilitated the unscrupulous traders to indulge in the smuggling of livestock, wheat, and other commodities. This has affected the availability and prices of these items in Pakistan. The official imports from Afghanistan also do not indicate the actual value of coal, chrome ore, iron ore, and other such minerals. In Pakistan, the demand for Afghan coal is increasing on a daily basis since industries in Punjab are facing shortage of gas. At the same time, chrome ore and iron ore, to name a few, compete with the mining output of these minerals in Pakistan and thus Pakistani exporters are able to enhance their share in the global minerals market. Afghanistan has more than 10% share in the chrome ore exported from Pakistan whereas share of Balochistan and KPK are 55% and 35%.

The signing of APTTA in 2010 and the decision to allow Afghan goods for India through land route, without any financial security, has bolstered more Pak-Afghan trade. The reconstruction and rehabilitation of Afghanistan inspite of being in a war zone has also increased the demand for Pakistani goods and commodities. Pakistan has also provided a credit limit of $100 million that needs to be enhanced in the future. Both countries have also agreed to reduce the amount of bank guarantee as it will facilitate smaller importers and exporters from Afghanistan. At the same time, Pakistan’s exports to Central Asian Republics through land route in Afghanistan will also be exempted from any financial security or guarantee. The Pakistani Customs authorities have lately been vigilant in controlling the movement of containers destined for Afghanistan with the result that some of the illegal trade has been diverted to official channels thus increasing revenue for the government and also impacting positively on the sales of domestic producers. The government has also agreed to encourage the use of Pakistan Railways for transportation of goods destined for Afghanistan. In this connection, efforts are underway to provide more engines and wagons for this sector.

The Roadblocks:

Pakistan and Afghanistan have managed to survive the violence, hostility, and terrorism that has led to the Global War on Terror, with Pakistan being the frontline state in this war. The presence of 130,000 NATO troops led by the United States in Afghanistan, the drone attacks, the shoot-out in Abbottabad, the escalation of militancy on Pakistan’s side of the Durand Line, the Salala incident, the hawkish statements oozing out of Pentagon and Foggy Bottom, the belligerent environment at Capitol Hill, the non-reimbursement of the Coalition Support Fund, the vocal accusations, blames and bashing of Pakistan’s premier intelligence organization, the loss of 36,000 civilians and 4,000 Army personnel, the financial drain of over $70 billion fighting the war, and the oft-repeated mantra of Do More have disastrously affected Pakistan’s economic, diplomatic, and social sectors.

The suspension of GLOC has seriously provoked Washington and it is to the credit of Pakistani government that it has been able to withstand international pressure for the last eight months. The hardliners in Pakistan have vowed to block any efforts by the government to open GLOC and this is manifested in the inability of the coalition government to succumb to the demands to allow containers destined for NATO/ISAF forces to cross the border. The impasse has to be broken soon, and it mainly depends on how the United States drafts the wording of apology to the people of Pakistan for the Salala massacre. The NATO Summit in Chicago in May where President Asif Ali Zardari was a list minute invitee and where there was optimism that finally Pakistan would reopen the GLOC did not get the response sought from Pakistan. Even the Chicago Summit Declaration on Afghanistan does not mention any reference to Pakistan. President Obama too conveniently forgot to thank Pakistan for help in getting supplies into Pakistan. Although the NATO Secretary General categorically acknowledged that the problems in Afghanistan cannot be solved without a positive engagement of Pakistan, only time would tell whether the Chicago Summit was in the larger national interest of Pakistan.

The situation in the region is further compounded by the USA-Iranian imbroglio. The United Nations embargo has further complicated matters for Afghanistan. The Afghan traders as well as NATO forces were keen to utilize Iran’s Chabahar port for shipments and trade. The Chabahar port has been financed by Indian government to maintain Iranian and Indian influence in Afghanistan after US forces leave Afghanistan in 2014. The second purpose, of course, is to counter the expected influence of the Gwadar port. Inspite of the embargo, the United States has granted waivers to seven countries for procuring oil from Iran. US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, in a statement on June 11, stated, “Today I have made the determination that seven economies—India, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey and Taiwan--have all significantly reduced their volume of crude oil purchases from Iran. They join the 11 countries for which I made this determination in March. As a result, I will report to the Congress that sanctions will not apply to their financial institutions for a potentially renewable period of 180 days.” Ironically, Afghanistan has been excluded from this waiver. The other eleven countries are Japan and ten EU countries. Although China has not received the waiver, Beijing has tacitly ignored the economic sanctions and continues to receive Iranian oil, albeit clandestinely. The waiver is also a dangerous signal for Pakistan. This recent Washington action could dampen the hopes of Islamabad that the Iran Pakistan Gas Pipeline would be a reality soon. Moreover, the prolonged suspension of GLOC has intensified concerns that Pakistan could be slapped with economic sanctions that would be disastrous and catastrophic.

A thorny issue that has muddied the waters is the Indian influence, politically, culturally, economically, and financially, over Afghanistan. The financing and construction of the Chabahar Port and the highway from the Port to Jalalabad in Afghanistan are alarming issues. The other sore point is the number of Indian “Consulates” in Afghanistan. Officially, there are 14 “Consulates” in Afghanistan and there are intelligence reports that these are primarily used for non-consular affairs which are a source of consternation for Pakistan, especially in the domain of national security. The acceptance by Pakistan to allow land route for Afghan goods to India through Wagah is another case of Indian influence, although it was the United States that prodded Islamabad to grant this facility.

The official Afghan-India bilateral trade figures of less than $200 million do not reflect the true scope of trade activities between both the countries. In October 2011, India and Afghanistan signed the Strategic Partnership Agreement that has three significant provisions. First point is the training, mentoring, and even assisting in the equipping of the Afghan National Security Forces both in India as well as in Afghanistan. Second point is providing economic aid and assistance to the tune of an additional $500 million on top of the $1 billion India has already spent since 2002. India and Afghanistan will cooperate in the development of mining and energy production. Kabul has awarded India mining rights for the country’s biggest iron deposits. Afghanistan expects $15 billion in foreign investment over 30 years in mining and energy with over $10 billion from India. An Indian investment consortium is negotiating the building of Afghanistan’s first steel mill costing $ 8 billion plus a power plant and facilities for ore extraction and processing. Third point is to establish a strategic dialogue to provide a framework for cooperation in the area of national security. This seems to be primarily Pakistan-specific.

The noteworthy remark made by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that “India will stand by the people of Afghanistan as they prepare to assume the responsibility for their governance and security after the withdrawal of international forces in 2014” also reveals the thinking in New Delhi that after the withdrawal of the Coalition force, it is imperative that India becomes the driving power in the region. One consolation for Pakistan is that the Afghanistan-China cooperation would provide tough competition to India in the area of economic influence. This, of course, does not bode well for Washington.

The APTTA is a volatile as well as a sensitive issue. Although the agreement is really Pakistan’s obligation as a neighbor and is in reality a credit to Pakistan, the unfortunate position is that this agreement has been blatantly misused, violated and corrupted. The agreement has always been detrimental to many of the industries in Pakistan and the main reason has been the blatant laxity demonstrated by those who are responsible for honest clearance and monitoring of the transit cargo. The 1965 APTTA had many loopholes and these became the base for dishonesty and deceit. The 2010 APTTA has endeavored to address most of the flaws in the previous agreement but Pakistani industrialists still view APTTA with suspicion and distrust.

APTTA is estimated to be the source of more than 70% of the smuggled goods that enter Pakistan. A conservative figure of total smuggling, without considering under-invoicing and mis-declaration, is in excess of $5 billion per annum. Tea is a case in point. Pakistanis drink over 230 million kg tea every year. The official tea imports are about 130 million kg while over 100 million kg is smuggled in from Afghanistan, and to some extent from Iran. It is a fact that Afghanis prefer green tea and genuine Afghani importers do import green tea for domestic consumption. The APTTA channel is conveniently used to import black tea that makes its way to Pakistan. In the month of May 2012, Pakistani ports received 28 consignments under APTTA from seven countries totaling 4921 metric tonnes. This included tea from India, China and Dubai too. This exhibits the quantity of tea imports purportedly for Afghanistan but in practice meant for the Pakistani consumer.

The misuse of APTTA results in revenue loss of around $3 billion annually in taxes, duties, and other levies. Pakistan’s road infrastructure is also greatly damaged due to overuse of trucks destined for Afghanistan. Moreover, APTTA is responsible for inculcating a massive corruption culture not only at the Customs stage but also in Pakistan Railways as well as at the border. The Afghan traders have also agitated strongly against a Pakistani decision taken in 1996 and 2000 to establish a negative list of items that would not be covered under APTTA.

The intensity of the misuse of APTTA can also be gauged from the fact that a large number of containers destined for Afghanistan go missing after clearance from the two ports of Karachi. So much so, even containers for NATO/ISAF lose their way and never cross the Durand Line. According to FBR official data, a total of 157,736 containers of United States destined for Afghanistan before the Salala incident of November 26, 2011 never reached there and disappeared inside Pakistan. Even Pakistan’s Customs does not have any record of 77,884 containers from the above missing figures. Pakistan’s Treasury lost over Rs 55 billion in revenue due to this chicanery.

It is also disheartening to note that inspite of the facilities provided by Pakistan, the Afghan authorities resort to Non Trade Barriers and discriminatory treatment of goods imported from Pakistan. Afghan Customs levy Rs 50,000 per container for imports from China and India but charge Rs 270,000 for each container imported from Pakistan. The discrimination is also prominent in exports of crockery items and motorcycles by Pakistan.

There is also this rule that only National Logistics Cell is authorized to transport transit goods by land route. Since NLC does not have a large number of vehicles, it sub contracts the transportation to private truck owners and charges a hefty frontloading percentage from the importers. Moreover, transit goods cannot be transported in open trailers due to the fear of pilferage and other reasons. Under APTTA this practice would be discontinued and the licensed and authorized private sector trucking companies will be allowed to undertake the transportation directly. Under NLC procedures, the transit cargo is first unloaded at the NLC warehouse at Amangarh in KPK and then sent across the border. Unfortunately, this storage area is incapable of providing ample space for unloading and storage resulting in long and time-consuming queues of the vehicles.

The APTTA 2010 envisages some laudable steps to regulate the trade under APTTA. The key steps to be taken include sealing of containerized cargo, tracking and checking of the containers thru biometric devises and satellite, scanning of containers, extensive monitoring by Customs authorities, forbidding partial shipments, and transporting only through Customs licensed bonded carriers. There is this hope that misuse would be minimized to a large extent and that reciprocity would be shown by the Afghan government in removing all discriminatory barriers and levies.

Role of Business Community:

Pakistani and Afghani business community must play a dominant role in furthering the bilateral relations between the two countries. Whether it is the issue of GWOT or GLOC or APTTA or even the sometimes tense relationship at the political level, the fact is that each and every issue impacts on businessmen and industrialists in both countries. There is a need to jointly form pressure groups to convey the apprehensions and concerns to the political leadership in Kabul and Islamabad.

One such initiative has been undertaken by businessmen from both the countries. On March 13, 2012, the Pakistan Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry was established. PAJCCI is strongly supported by the Afghanistan Chambers of Commerce and Industries (ACCI) and three Chambers of Pakistan with the support of governments of the two countries in an attempt to boost trade, commerce and investment. The three Pakistani Chambers are Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI), Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KPCCI) and Chaman Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCCI).

The obvious drawback in the setting up of PAJCCI has been the opposition of Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) who deem the initiative should be under its umbrella and patronage instead of three Pakistani Chambers undertaking this venture. The Mardan Chamber of Commerce and Industry is agitating its exclusion and has formally appealed to FPCCI to take measures against the formation of PAJCCI. However, the Joint Chamber is within the ambit of APTTA and is being financed initially by the British High Commission through the Center for International Private Enterprise, an organization under US Chamber of Commerce.

A pragmatic step taken with the support of USAID has been the formation of the Talc Association with 250 members in Jalalabad. Over 200 truckloads of unprocessed talc are daily exported to Pakistan. In 2010, the annual quantity was 80,000 metric tonnes and it is estimated that the figure would cross 100,000 metric tonnes in 2013. There are more than 50 quarries in the area and the Association is also planning to attract other international markets too. This is one area where Pakistanis can invest in joint ventures and set up more processing plants in Pakistan.

It is also proposed that an Annual Joint Dialogue mechanism be developed with meetings alternating between the two countries. The format should be business-to-business and business-to-government so that everyone is on the same page. Moreover, there is a need to enhance trade and investment delegations and also to regularly organize single country exhibitions in major cities in both the countries.

Pakistani universities and institutes should have a business student exchange program under which the Afghani students are provided education in modern business methods and dynamics. PAJCCI can establish an endowment fund that could sponsor students desiring business degrees. Preston University has nearly 300 Afghani students pursuing BBA degrees at its various campuses. In the last three decades, more than 28,000 Afghans have graduated from Pakistani universities in various disciplines. 30 students have completed their Doctorate degree from Pakistani universities too.

Conclusion:

Pakistan and Afghanistan have to look towards the future. The two countries cannot isolate one another nor can they can remove themselves from the ground realities. Peace can only be ushered through mutual cooperation and trust. The antagonizing statements emanating out of the government corridors or from military barracks must be toned down considerably so that terrorism, extremism, suicide attacks, deaths, and losses are controlled. Both countries have to jointly work to achieve the objectives. Peace is possible and peace is imperative. The barricade is the lack of mutual trust and more reliance on external forces and ideas instead of each other. The business community can be the game changer in ensuring that the powers that be really smoke and relish the peace pipe. The countdown must begin, now.

Sunday, May 27, 2012

When will they listen to Private Sector?

Majyd Aziz

Today, there are 196 countries spread around the globe. Various multilateral organizations determine the status of these countries by benchmarking their economic and social development. Some are termed as developed nations while others are known as developing or least developed countries. In the past, countries were also categorized into First World or correspondingly as Third World countries. Pakistan is classified as a developing country, although those harboring deep animosities against this Republic love to hype these feelings by calling it a failed or rogue state.

Pakistan has, over the past many decades, experimented with various models to usher in a sustainable economic development status. However, the country has vacillated between a centralized structure, military intervention, pseudo socialism, political dispensation, and unplanned provincialism. The unfortunate mindset prevailing in the corridors of power that policies of the past governments do not reflect their desired manner of governance has widely affected the progress of the country.

The successive governments have all been hampered by the obvious lack of political and moral will to enforce pragmatic legislation and policies that would have been deciding factors in ensuring economic deliverance. The inability of the governments, as well as officialdom, in broadening the tax base has been a debilitating feature of political will. Tax to GDP ratio is pathetic when compared with world standards. It is less than 9% at a time when this nation requires a firm ground to base its economic progress. Revenue collection inches up rather than hopping and jumping. For fiscal year 2011-2012, the Federal Board of Revenue has estimated collection of only Rs 1952 billion whereas the ideal figure should be over Rs 3000 billion. Relentless efforts should have been initiated by FBR to revamp the rules and regulations to achieve the desirable target. Even Rs 2500 billion in today’s scenario would have enabled an inflow of an additional half a trillion Rupees that would have empowered the government to earmark and disburse formidable funds for Public Sector Development Programs as well as to drastically reduce dependence on bank borrowings.

It is to be noted here that whenever the governments get caught in the whirlpool of low financial resources, the first casualty becomes the PSDP. The Finance Ministers blatantly announce on Budget Day that the government is planning to spend the “highest” amount on PSDP but by the time the fiscal year is about to come to a close, the concerned committee quietly announces that due to financial constraints, the allocations for PSDP is planned to nosedive. This is bad economics, because there are relatively fewer or generally casual steps undertaken to control and reduce the non-developmental expenditures that, invariably, are allowed to escalate unbridled.

The Finance Ministry bases its revenue projections on the assumption that budgetary deficits would be tackled by knocking at the portals of multilateral agencies, harnessing domestic savings and bank borrowings, focusing on the expected revenue through taxes, duties, and levies, and heavily relying on remittances by the Pakistan Diaspora around the globe. A tremor in any of these sources results in the budgetary projections going haywire. Fiscal gimmickry is adopted as a matter of routine to present a rosy picture, ostensibly to shield the government from public outcry or to drape the negative factors from foreign lenders or investors. No matter what methods are used, the outcome becomes a disappointing nightmare.

The dependence on IMF does provide much needed financial assistance but the conditionalities imposed by this organization are back-breaking, and instead of addressing the welfare and quality of life of the denizens, the net result is increased hardship for the citizens. When the time comes for repayment of these loans, the country is already hard-strapped for foreign reserves and then the Finance Ministers alongwith economic managers make a beeline to hop on the plane to Washington.

The prime problem in the scenario mentioned above lies in the fact that the finance managers and policymakers have this penchant for considering themselves top grade experts and, in their self-created arrogance, debase the practical and worthwhile proposals, suggestions, and ideas of the private sector. This is the norm, not the exception. Private sector organizations assiduously deliberate, discuss, and then formulate budgetary proposals every year. Countless trips are made to Islamabad and intense lobbying is undertaken to bring about positive change. Political parties are invited to private sector organizations to hear out the business community. Alas, tall promises are made, rhetorical chanting is branded as visionary commitments of that political party, and at the end of the day, Parliamentary representatives of these parties go back to their abodes or offices unsure what they had heard or pledged.

The hierarchy of various Chambers and Associations lack the critical mass to enforce their proposals and ideas because of the very obvious fact that although there is continued hobnobbing with the policymakers, the captains of trade and industry are not keen on being on the wrong side of these decision makers. The onus, therefore, lies on the representatives of the small traders, markets, or small and cottage industries to vociferously create opposition to the steps taken by FBR. This is not the ideal way to get things done, but more often than not, it propels the leaders of trade and industry to come to terms with the ground reality and then they endeavor to adopt the stand taken by the agitators.

Therefore, if the government in power truly desires to bring about an economic revolution, it must, atleast few months before Budget Day, convene an Economic Convention for two days where all heads of political parties alongwith their economic team must interact and listen to the representatives of the private sector and agree on a short-term and long-term economic agenda that would be binding on all segments of society. Everyone has to be on the same page. Populist measures, half-baked ideas, heavy reliance on external financing, burdensome non-developmental expenditure, and universal corruption at all levels must be seriously addressed and policies must be unanimously accepted and agreed to bring the required positive change. Private sector must be fully involved in the economic agenda and it is also the responsibility of private sector to ensure that policies are implemented. Public and private sector must work together to rid the country’s economic development of all the cobwebs, of an ingrained and archaic mindset, of gimmickry and financial shenanigans, of unashamed corruption due to red-tape, inertia, and discretionary powers, and of governmental tomfoolery.

Pakistan has spent $ 70 billion on the Global War on Terror, and in the process lost 38,000 civilians and 3,500 brave soldiers. Natural calamities have severely affected the nation’s progress. Unemployment is at an all-time high. The newspapers often come out with items that Pakistanis are transferring capital to foreign countries. US Senators and Congressmen jump over one another to introduce Bills to whack Pakistan and send it to the Stone Age. Good governance is just a buzzword and not an active policy of the governments. Political leaders embellish a regal lifestyle without any concern for the common man. Law and order situation has become threatening for the very existence of the country. Private sector is shaken and scared. Private sector does not only mean the banks or top multinational companies or Pakistani mega conglomerates. Private sector is actually the SMEs, the small and micro traders, and those who peddle their wares on the streets. They are the most affected and they are on the high seas without a paddle.

Hard-nosed decisions must be undertaken to broaden the tax base. The taxation system must be revamped to be attractive rather than being a deterrent thus impacting positively on tax collection. Dry Ports must be converted to export-facilitation centers rather than using these to support unscrupulous imports. Billions in revenue are lost due to this decision. Pakistanis based in foreign countries must be provided constitutional protection for their investment in their country of birth. Foreign investors must be freed from the shackles of bureaucratic roadblocks and barriers. It is imperative that domestic industries get an even playing field against imports that are under-invoiced, mis-declared, and smuggled in connivance with concerned officials. Most of these actions are doable and must be done. Time is running out. Sadly, political parties, the establishment, and the feudal are all self-centered and keep their heads underground. This is the fact and only the private sector can kick them out of their contaminated mentality and dispassionate scorn for the citizens and induce them to open their eyes to the stark reality because the fire of people’s anger may engulf the whole motherland.

Jo roshnion mein behtay hain wo jantay hi nahin
Hawa chalay to chiragon ki zindagi kya hai

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Pakistani businessmen decry ISI-bashing

                                                                          Majyd Aziz

CIA, MOSSAD, MI-6, RAW, and of course, ISI. These are some of the well-known, respected, and feared organizations, generally known as intelligence or secret agencies, and are mandated by their respective governments or charters to undertake designated activities that are crucial for national security and national integrity of their motherland. Over the past many decades, other such agencies have been in the news and most of them have been infamous, not only in their own country, but throughout the world. Russia’s KGB, Shah of Iran’s SAVAK, former East Germany’s STASI, or the vicious gang of Haiti’s ‘Papa Doc’ Duvalier, officially known as MVSN, but contemptuously nicknamed by every Haitian as Tonton Macoutes. Each and every country, and there are 196 countries in the world, has some structured organization that could be termed as an intelligence agency.

What has become synonymous with these secret intelligence organizations is their portrayal in public as tough, conspiratorial, disregard for world protocols, ruthless, knowledgeable, and in many cases, ‘state within a state’. While accusations and proofs do manifest such thinking, the fact is that for these agencies, the primary objective is to protect and secure the nation from external and even internal threats, intrigues, and more importantly attacks in any manner and channel. Therefore, bashing the nation’s intelligence apparatus is in effect undermining the national security and national responsibility.

Over the last few years, a new thinking has developed in certain quarters and this is assuming ominous proportions. Whispers became words, words became print, print became online debates, and these debates resonated from small hamlets in the interior of Pakistan to the capitals of the world. What should have been nipped in the bud, or just gossiped in the parlors, was broadcast all over through the global megaphone. Suddenly, an organization whose prime objective is to ensure national security and to provide all possible intelligence reports and position papers to the armed forces is being unnecessarily compromised and even postings of the hierarchy have become subjects of pros and cons.

The impetus created by a civilian government to what it called bringing the organization under the executive in its fullest sense triggered warning sirens inside the portals of the well-secured enclave in Rawalpindi. A flurry of actions was immediately conducted and the executive backed down, albeit with a bitter taste in the mouth. Although the status quo was, and has been, maintained and the juggernaut in Islamabad’s Aabpara is functioning as before, the hard fact is that a pretty solid dent has been created in its armor. The invulnerable armor of the organization was further attacked in the back when a mischievous but poignantly damaging clause in the much-publicized lollipop from Capitol Hill called Kerry-Lugar-Berman Act desired that this organization be under true civilian authority. Again, the defenders of the nation brought much needed sanity and prevailed upon the residents of the two regal edifices in Margalla to understand the ramifications of this clause as it would not promote democracy but may unpleasantly damage the process of reconciliation and constitutional authority.

Ever since these externally initiated dents, pointing fingers towards Aabpara has become a favorite pastime for many who exert influence in this country. The self-styled liberals have joined in as a chorus and further exacerbated the situation without comprehending the sensitivity and insight of safeguarding the national strategic assets. Ironically, taking due course to the immortal words of President Harry Truman that “the buck stops here”, the focus has been on the decisions and actions of those who skippered the sensitive organization. The background of these actions has been scrutinized with a bias while opaque glasses are worn to justify the vehement opposition to what transpired behind closed doors. The ensuing result may be the beginning of demoralization within the cadre in this organization and may severely impact the effectiveness and capability of a premier organization, an organization positively recognized as an epitome of excellence within the global intelligence community. Yes, the naysayers love to call it a rogue organization but, at the same time, it is generally acclaimed for its skill, talent, and significance.

So, where does all this leads. From a businessman’s point of view, the very fact that sensitive organizations are made to come out from behind the curtains to be paraded in an alfresco environment and asked to strip bare manifests a threatening situation for the motherland. From day one when Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto daringly announced that the denizens of this nation would eat grass but will possess the nuclear bomb, there has been an anti-Pakistani dark cloud hovering above in the skies. When the event finally took place at Chagai Hill in Balochistan, the clouds became darker and menacing. The brilliant minds overseeing the sensitive organizations ensured that the national strategic assets were well protected and safe from the daily threats from foes and friends alike. Today, the 185 million citizens are comfortable in the knowledge that inspite of all odds, the assets and human resources are secure, dependable, and ready for any eventuality. This is also reassuring for the business community that is investing billions, earning foreign exchange, and providing meaningful employment.

Therefore, the business community is of the solid opinion and are united in requesting people who matter that this is not an ‘us versus they’ circumstance but a matter of national interest that should not become a game scoring or an ego trip. It is imperative that all those who wield authority must be on the same page and must reflect this unified thinking in word and spirit. This is not the time for manipulative maneuvers or polemical pursuits. This is not the time for brinkmanship or gainsaying ventures. This is not the time for putting at risk the ideology and sovereignty of the country. Pakistan is in a crisis, economically, politically, and diplomatically. What should come first? Personal agenda or national integrity? Protection of sensitive organizations, especially ISI, and prosperity of the nation should prevail and recognized as prime priorities. This is only possible when everyone truly adheres to the clarion call, that for all Pakistanis it is always Pakistan First.

Yehi Jo Haal Raha Apni Behisi Ka Tau Phir
Khuda Bachai Jo Farda Meri Nigah Mein Hai Bassi